Here’s what we know:
Warships is coming in April.
Warships will come before the next crab.
According to the coming to Boom Beach in March video, the Anniversary Crab will arrive in “early April”.
The crab shadow usually appears in the water on Wednesday.
Furthermore, while updates have come on other days of the week, the majority have come early in the week. An early in the week update would make sense since they would need to fix any major bugs before the Crab comes.
For the crab to come in the early part of April it would have to come on 1 of the first 2 weekends. Any later and there is no way you could say it was “early”. Also, if it were to come on the 3rd weekend you’d be looking at crabs on back to back weekends if they want to get back on schedule. So the next crab will come on either April 5 or 12 and April 12 is pushing the definition of early.
Based on this, I would say the most likely date for the next crab will be April 5. For them to get the shadow in the water on time they would need to have the update installed on either the Monday or Tuesday before. That would mean that Warships is most likely coming April 1 or 2 with April 8 and 9 also possibilities.
So there you have it, Warships is coming on April 1, 2, 8, or 9. I absolutely, positively, 100% guarantee that there’s a chance it might come on 1 of those dates. Of course there is a chance that on April 1 we get a message I’m our Boom Box that has a picture of a warship and a message saying “April Fools”.