ngle') echo ' '; // If we were displaying just one and we did it, break. if ($display_type == 'single' && $verify_context['tracking'] == $i) break; } // Assume we found something, always, $verify_context['tracking']++; // Tell something displaying piecemeal to keep going. if ($display_type == 'single') return true; } ?> Statue probability
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Offline Chaucer

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #30 on: May 21, 2019, 06:58 PM »
I take the "+/- 1% variance" to refer to the probability, not to the statue % itself.

As in, you can get a GBE MP of any value from 20% to 42%. And the listed probability on the chart only indicates the relative chance of getting a statue around that value.

Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #31 on: May 21, 2019, 07:32 PM »
I don’t think it refers to the probability and the comments in the original thread seem to confirm that it relates to the bonus. However no one ever gets a +1% variance over maximum so I guess it is just -1% variability... have to recheck the original thread again


Edit just reread it


My Statue has a different number than those in your table - is your table wdrong?
 
 

The actual number may be off by +/- 1%. The way it works is that there is base boost % for all the statues, and each type is multiplied by the boost multiplier factor. For example, for Gunboat energy, it is 1.7x, while for troop damage, it is 1.3x.  As decimals are not used, the numbers are rounded to integers, so there is potential round off error. Interestingly, the rounding off is not very consistent in the actual numbers - sometimes, Supercell seems to use round up, while in most cases it uses round down. That's why you may find some statues off by 1%.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 07:36 PM by Artist formerly known as Crows Nest »
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Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #32 on: May 21, 2019, 09:57 PM »
Work in progress
Gunboat Energy mod 1.7
I 5% = Adj 2.94 == 3
I 6% = adj 3.52 == 4
? 7% = adj 4.12 == 4?
I 8% = adj 4.71 == 5
? 9% = adj 5.29 == 5?
G 10 = adj 5.88 == 6
G 11% = adj 6.47 == 7?
? 12% = adj 7.06 == 7?
G 13% = adj 7.64 == 8
? 14% = adj 8.24 == 8?
G 15% = adj 8.82 == 9
? 16% = adj 9.41 == 9?
G 17% = adj 10.00 == 10
? 18% = adj 10.59 == 11? never seen as a g
? 19% = adj 11.18 == 11? Never seen as a g
M 20% = adj 11.76 == 12
? 21% = adj 12.35 = 12?
? 22% = adj 12.94 == 13?
M 23% = adj 13.53 == 14
? 24% = adj 14.12 == 14?
? 25% = adj 14.71 == 15?
? 26% = adj 15.29 == 15?
M 27% = adj 15.88 == 16
? 28% = adj 16.47 == 16?
? 29% = adj 17.06 == 17?
M 30% = adj 17.65 == 18
? 31% = adj 18.24 == 18?
? 32% = adj 18.82 == 19?
? 33% = adj 19.41 == 19?
M 34% = adj 20.00 == 20
M 35% = adj 20.59 == 21
? 36% = adj 21.18 == 21?
M 37% = adj 21.76 == 22
? 38% = adj 22.35 == 22?
M 39% = adj 22.94 == 23
M 40% = adj 23.53 == 24
? 41% = adj 24.12 == 24? Confirmed seen
M 42% = adj 24.71 == 25
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 10:54 PM by Artist formerly known as Crows Nest »
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Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #33 on: May 21, 2019, 10:09 PM »
Work in progress
Resource Reward mod 2
I 6% = adj 3 == 3
I 8% = adj 4 == 4
I 10% = adj 5 == 5
G 12% = adj 6 == 6
G 14% = adj 7 == 7
G 16% = adj 8 == 8
G 18% = adj 9 == 9
G 20% = adj 10 == 10
M 24% = adj 12 == 12
M 28% = adj 14 == 14
M 32% = adj 16 == 16
M 36% = adj 18 == 18
M 40% = adj 20 == 20
M 42% = adj 21 == 21
M 44% = adj 22 == 22
M 46% = adj 23 == 23
M 48% = adj 24 == 24
M 50% = adj 25 == 25
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 10:24 PM by Artist formerly known as Crows Nest »
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Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #34 on: May 21, 2019, 10:23 PM »
Work in progress

Powerstone Chance mod 3
I 9% = adj 3 == 3
I 12% = adj 4 == 4
I 15% = adj 5 == 5
G 18% = adj 6 == 6
G 21% = adj 7 == 7
G 24% = adj 8 == 8
G 27% = adj 9 == 9
G 30% = adj 10 == 10
M 36% = adj 12 == 12
M 42% = adj 14 == 14
M 48% = adj 16 == 16
M 54% = adj 18 == 18
M 60% = adj 20 == 20
M 63% = adj 21 == 21
M 66% = adj 22 == 22
M 69% = adj 23 == 23
M 72% = adj 24 == 24
M 75% = adj 25 == 25


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Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #35 on: May 21, 2019, 11:08 PM »
From above dark stone data
The adj ranges from 3 to 25 and is not an integer (shown by repeat ==)
If the max range is 25 for dark, there is no reason it is not 25 for all, this allows us to approximate all the mods. The td mod of 1.3 from yesup also fits the 25.
Gun boat energy 1.7 (from yesup) * 42/25=1.68
Resource Reward 2
Power stone chance 3
Troop damage 1.3 (from yesup) *32/25=1.28
Troop health 1.4
Building health 1.28 == 1.3
Building damage 1.48 == 1.5
Wood prod = 2.48 == 2.5
Stone prod = 2.48 == 2.5
Iron prod = 2.48 == 2.5
Gold prod = 2
All prod = 1



Do the inferred statues (?) all exist? Some don’t exist 18% and 19% gbe?
There seems to be hard divides between idol, guardian and masterpiece ranges. As seen from gbe 18% and 19% not existing as guardians and I have not seen as masterpieces. Also bolstered by the masterpiece range starting at 20%


Is 1.7 mod for gbe accurate? I think not. Assuming that 25 is max then 42/25 = 1.68. Using 1.68 is neater than 1.7. For example the rounding on g10 and g11 doesn’t work at 1.7 but does at 1.68 which suggests all the mods are likely to be at least 2 decimal places. Will adjust mod to 1.68 * td equally suspect.


Edit had more but lost it somewhere with this device and poor internet connection. Goes some way to showing my doubts about the original yesup guide and the question asked what else could be wrong with the details in the guide. Hopefully someone with better resources (and mind) can take it further.


Edit I would imagine that the probability can be charted against the adjusted bonus (adj) to give some insight to the distribution.
Should also be able to work out when the adj tips over to the next bonus.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 12:57 AM by Artist formerly known as Crows Nest »
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Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #36 on: May 21, 2019, 11:45 PM »
Work in progress
Gunboat Energy mod 1.68
I 5% = Adj 2.97 == 3
I 6% = adj 3.57 == 4
? 7% = adj 4.17 == 4?
I 8% = adj 4.76 == 5
? 9% = adj 5.36 == 5?
G 10 = adj 5.95 == 6
G 11% = adj 6.55 == 7
? 12% = adj 7.14 == 7?
G 13% = adj 7.74 == 8
? 14% = adj 8.33 == 8?
G 15% = adj 8.93 == 9
? 16% = adj 9.52 == 10?
G 17% = adj 10.12 == 10
? 18% = adj 10.71 == 11? never seen as a g
? 19% = adj 11.31 == 11? Never seen as a g
M 20% = adj 11.90 == 12
? 21% = adj 12.50 == 13?
? 22% = adj 13.10 == 13?
M 23% = adj 13.69 == 14
? 24% = adj 14.29 == 14?
? 25% = adj 14.88 == 15?
? 26% = adj 15.48 == 15?
M 27% = adj 16.07 == 16
? 28% = adj 16.67 == 16?
? 29% = adj 17.26 == 17?
M 30% = adj 17.86 == 18
? 31% = adj 18.45 == 18?
? 32% = adj 19.05 == 19?
? 33% = adj 19.64 == 19?
M 34% = adj 20.24 == 20
M 35% = adj 20.83 == 21
? 36% = adj 21.43 == 21?
M 37% = adj 22.02 == 22
? 38% = adj 22.62 == 23?
M 39% = adj 23.21 == 23
M 40% = adj 23.81 == 24
? 41% = adj 24.40 == 24? Confirmed seen
M 42% = adj 25 == 25


Edit Difference between adj/bonus seems to be approx 0.6 therefore 0.3 either side of adj is the range of bonus. For example gbe m37 = range adj 21.72 to 22.32 (0.6), m38 = range adj 22.32 to 22.92 (0.6) rounding still plays a part at 2 decimal places. Further note does M 42 extend from 24.7 to 25.3? Does that effect the mod or is the top masterpieces inherently rarer by only having a range of 0.3 instead of 0.6? Does that mean m41 is actually in the lower tier hence m42 being half the probability of previous tier?
Is the tier probability simply but roughly related to the number of bonus entries in the tier?
Does it also follow that all the top bonuses in idol, guardian and masterpiece are similarly restricted to just one bonus entry? Eg I8, G17 and M42 are constrained compared to other bonuses? Does that mean also that the lowest possible statues in idols, guardians and masterpieces have a larger range from the hard divides between such statues eg I5 extents from 0 to 3.27 (3.27) and M20 from 10.12 to 13.39 (3.27) encompassing M20,M21, M22? G10 from 4.76 to 6.25 (1.5)?


Edit again just did the gbe idols and it seems to match. I5 is one big range from 0 to 3.27 for tier 1. Tier 2 is I6 and I7 is from 3.27 to 4.37 and tier 3 is just I8 from 4.37 to ? Roughly equates to the stated probabilities of 57, 29, 14 respectively.


Edit again again. Bismarck was getting twice as many tier two idols as tier 1 despite the stated probabilities saying the opposite should be true. I suggest that either the original probabilities were wrong/misunderstood/miscommunicated or have changed. Tier 1 has 1 entry and tier 2 has 2 entries therefore if the ranges are actually equal (as suggested above but top tier still truncated/constrained) then you would expect twice as many tier 2 idols. Okay now I can sleep 😴🤪


Further edit and observation. The probabilities of the idols are tier 1 57%, tier 2 29%, tier 3 14%. This strangely could correspond to bonus entries per tier.
Tier 3 has one entry of 8%
Tier 2 has potentially two entries of 6% and 7%
Tier 1 has only entry of 5% but if you extrapolate that 1 entry is 14% of a total, then that total is 7 which gives 2 entries (tier 2) 29% of 7, leaving 4 of which only 1 is accounted for in tier 1 and that 4 entries is 57%. Coincidence? Probably but just throwing it out there. Might be something to do with the hard divides between tiers where statues should exist but don’t.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 08:19 PM by Artist formerly known as Crows Nest »
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Offline fritzelly

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Re: Statue probability
« Reply #37 on: May 22, 2019, 01:07 AM »
 Can you whack that onto an excel sheet?
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Offline LilMiss

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #38 on: May 22, 2019, 09:02 AM »
Things could have changed since the original article, however, it is worth noting that Tim was community manager at the time thanked Yessup  and LANfill is credited with helping - he was an SC mod at  a time where the SC staff on boom were very open with the forums and mods on how things worked.

I can’t read through all the comments and respond properly on my phone so I will get hold off lap top later !




Edit: regarding randomness of statues, I recall one (?) person suggesting that, rather than being randomly generated and the servers on your account remembering what you, individually, rolled, that there is either one long random string of  statues - and it just has to remember your place.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2019, 09:17 AM by LilMiss »
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Offline TheBro88

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #39 on: May 25, 2019, 06:10 AM »
Wow, I don’t understand any of that. I love how a fun little animated game can inspire people to make such detailed observations lol
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Offline Bismarck

Re: Statue probability
« Reply #40 on: May 25, 2019, 08:37 AM »
I don’t think it refers to the probability and the comments in the original thread seem to confirm that it relates to the bonus. However no one ever gets a +1% variance over maximum so I guess it is just -1% variability...
You never see MPS above the maximum listed value but you never see idols below the minimum listed value either.  I'm now up to 1173 statues recorded, of which 957 are idols.  Of those,  257 were tier 1.  All were perfect - that is to say, none were -1%.  Compare that to tier 2 (530 statues) of which only 63% were perfect.  It appears that statues can be + or- 1%, not just -1, but the value must fall between the range shown on the chart.
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