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Author Topic: No Luck 🙁  (Read 364 times)

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Offline Orrscores

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #15 on: Jan 11, 2019, 10:03 PM »
1st off...you can call me Orr....2nd...I didn't know I could pass this thing off...how do I send it to Mike...I mean sombody else😂
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Online fritzelly

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #16 on: Jan 11, 2019, 10:10 PM »
1st off...you can call me Orr....2nd...I didn't know I could pass this thing off...how do I send it to Mike...I mean sombody else😂

You don't pass it to Mike, you throw it at him

Offline Orrscores

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #17 on: Jan 12, 2019, 12:01 AM »
Ok so how would one throw a rock at a fellow forumer.....named Mike :o ?
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Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #18 on: Jan 12, 2019, 12:04 AM »
13/10
Go to the shop
Select send item to someone

You can buy a lot of rocks for 2700+ boom beach bucks 🤪
1️⃣👥💕🆕💥🏝 - RIP Brian Bolda

Online fritzelly

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #19 on: Jan 12, 2019, 12:32 AM »
Ok so how would one throw a rock at a fellow forumer.....named Mike :o ?

Just for you
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Offline CaptNasty

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #20 on: Jan 12, 2019, 12:42 AM »
Maybe it could be tribes.  Perhaps tribes are merely correlative and not causal.

I try to be consistent in how I play but one day will be great and others will be real stinkers on VP gain.

All I know is that I have worked to play in a way that seeks to maximize my mercenary spawn chance.  Sometimes I think it works.  Other times, I think it is a waste of time.

I feel like successful raids increase the mercenary spawn chance, and multiple raids ocurring before a spawn occurs will stack and increase your PvP spawn chance, but once you get a single spawn be it PvP or NPC; the spawn chance resets

As a result I believe a major culprit in inconsistent VP progression, beside the randomness factor in the game is the frequency of raids.  Not the number of raids, but the frequency.  If your raids are spread out, the game will balance out.  If the raids are in rapid succession, you fall behind in the count.

If this is true, it would seem to imply that having a base that can reasonably be counted on to generate defends or even prevent other players from attacking you could provide a more consistent game experience when VP pushing. 

Alternatively, clearing your base 2 or 3 times a day could offset the randomness of VP loss from raids by limiting how low your spawn chances sink before you return the spawn chance to it’s optimal range by clearing your map.

This also would imply that there is a complete randomness that cannot be controlled: how the player who spawns your base reacts to it.  Does the player look at your base and think “I got this” then wipe you out right when you spawn?  Does he next you?   Does he wait for his boost window (or any other delay) to attack?  The human factor really does account for some of the very real frustrations that this game exhibits when VP pushing.  Combine several people who hold your base for some time then decide attack within relatively short times of one another and you have a recipe for losing VP.
« Last Edit: Jan 12, 2019, 01:28 AM by CaptNasty »

Offline Orrscores

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #21 on: Jan 12, 2019, 01:43 AM »
Just for you
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Hahahaaa...I threw a rock at....I mean I think sombody threw a rock at Mike...he was a shady looking cat and he ran that way!!!
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Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #22 on: Jan 12, 2019, 10:43 AM »
Until this tribal cycle I had very dependable raids/pvp. Like capt I manage my map to maximise pvp spawns. I check my map every 20 mins whenever practical and kill whatever I find (this is why I don’t boost offense, I would burn too much powder) and keep events until the last minute so that I am almost permanently 17% 14%. A bad day for me is dropping a couple of vp, a normal day is breaking even, a good day is increasing my vp. I think 1300vp is very well balanced if you can’t defend and keep your map clear which is why this situation is unusual to me.

To get onto global leaderboard territory I firmly believe you need to be heavily iced in order to disrupt the spawning processes in your favour. There was a time full offense could do it but I think those days are gone.

As far as I am aware you really need to maximise your pvp spawns to progress by killing your spawns as soon as they appear.
If you clear twice a day then I think you are restricting your spawning potential.
For example. If you log on after a significant amount of time then I believe the game works out how many spawns you could potentially have during that logged off time period. If your radar is at 17/14 then the first potential spawn is determined by those percentages. Once there is a successful spawn then the percentages change and the process repeats until all potential spawn opportunities are used.
However if you haven’t cleared your map before logging off then all the percentages will be lower and so you will have a lower chance of spawns for this whole process.

I think your vp (in conjunction with clouds) determines the parameters of how many times you can appear on other people maps in a day. I also think that every time you log on gives you a chance of spawning on someone else’s map which is why I found in the past that clearing once a day resulted in me having significantly less raids by other players but less people for me to raid. This was several months ago so it could have changed.

Anyway just some observations.

I would love to hear more about the frequency theory though, sounds interesting.
1️⃣👥💕🆕💥🏝 - RIP Brian Bolda

Offline CaptNasty

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #23 on: Jan 12, 2019, 01:49 PM »
...I would love to hear more about the frequency theory...
You raise an interesting point too.  I have also felt that there seems to be a correlation between how frequently you get on the game and how frequently you spawn on their player’s maps.

As far as the frequency theory goes, what I am doing is watching my Activity Log and tracking VP performance each day. 

Earlier this week I had a couple of days where I had clusters of raids in the activity log without any spawns between them.  Like 3-4 raids over an 45 minute period.  Each of these days my VP progression was in the negative by 2-3 VP.  Even after I had long breaks from raids following the flurry, spawn rates were flat.

The past 3 days, raids have been spread out with several hours between each raid with at least one spawn between the raids.  My VP “high water mark” has increased by 9 VP in this time frame to 1335 vp.

Also during this time, I have transitioned to a twice a day map clear.  The only log on I do between map clearings is to  collect and start statues.  I am also building two MPs a day.  So I have had minimal log ins.  During this time I seem to have gotten a better cadence on raids.  But that could just be a lucky run and I realize that.

Remember that the kerfuffle that Master Mordy intiated on the old forum ended with data being collected and adjustments being made to matchmaking to address spawn issues.  The most visible change seems to be that spawns are now somehow tied to players having recently logged onto the game.  The dev team said the data indicated there was a problem, but they did not indicate what the problem was.  Said another way, they did not validate or invalidate any of the theories that were advanced in that discussion.

It is as if non-programmers think that because there is code it has to have logic that is highly complex.  After all it is the “magical” technolgy so it has to be complex, right?  I also think that spawn rates are probably much more simplistic than we have imagined. 

As a software engineer with over 25 years of experience I think it more probable that a development team would seek to develop an elegant solution to drive spawn rates as we are discussing here.  I think it is less probable that the development team would want to build an algorithm that would make Rube Goldberg proud.

Do we have it totally figured out?  Doubtful.  Will we ever fully figure it out?  Probably not.  But it is fun trying to read those tea leaves.
« Last Edit: Jan 12, 2019, 02:29 PM by CaptNasty »

Offline Whirlwind

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #24 on: Jan 12, 2019, 03:48 PM »
As good as yesterday was for me (16 pvp spawns & 7 raids), today is terrible with 6 pvp spawns & 11 raids. Certainly not anything consistent other than we can expect extreme inconsistencies. However I can usually tell it’s going to be a bad day just by how many pvp I spawn in just a couple hours after initial map clearing. If I get 2 or more in that first couple hours it’s going to be a good vp increase day. 🤯

Offline MinionsWeb

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #25 on: Jan 12, 2019, 10:55 PM »
They are constantly tweaking the mm.
Each time you see that the replay cycle is broken you know that something has been done, announced or not.
All the while top VP changes are also being applied.
Back in December #1WW was able to gain 100+_vp in a matter of 3 days.
He then climbed slowly for about 10 days and another change was implemented, he lost 70+ vp in a matter of days.

You cannot only look at just your scores, you need to track the trends, I have many many days of data on daily spawn rates, attack rates, and LB top & bottom 10s WW and USA.
You will see what is happening by tracking that info

Last 2-3 changes had VP gaining in what had been stale (1100 to 1150 band) but the last change now has me losing very slowly 1-2 daily vp and cannot progress past 1170.
I had similar issues in the 1125-1175  range in november.
Before that in august when I was hitting 1240s but could not gain to 1250.

Unfortunately life has interfered with really keeping map clear 18-19 hours of the day since then, but I clear 1-2 times daily and should be gaining slow.
My tf mate has been inching up since he has been able to maintain playing consistently as we both had before august, when he was 100 vp under me and has had upward movement.
He experienced bands where he lost ground and slow gains too.
They were in different bands in different periods, his account would behave 1 way mine another.
Last night he hit 1300 no ice deployed, and the experiment is still in force.

another tf mate was essentially static, with sporadic gains then it would fall back again. in the 1200 - 1225 range.

After I close the deal on moms house in March I will go back to aggressive clearing and shoot for 1300 as I had planned on in August.

MinionsWeb is DredPir8Roberts - VP1200|GBE42+17+17+17+17+17|PSC71|TD30+13|TH34 - RetiredTurtle! whatsyerexcuse?
⚡Inigo_Montoya⚡ - VP670|GBE40+17+17+17+16|RR49|PSC74|TD31+13|TH29 - Prepare2die
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Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #26 on: Jan 12, 2019, 11:06 PM »
Would you be able to create a thread with your data and update it when you have time MinionsWeb? It would be very interesting.

I often wonder how the players data is structured in this game. You hear of pools of players, are there multiple servers that function as pools that match making draws from? When I played wow it was structured like this. When a server was getting over populated they created a new pool/realm on a new server. If a pool/realm lost too many players then it was merged with another and shutdown.


Edit 16/17, 14/13, 13/14, 13/10, 11/16, 14/11, 14/13, 14/11, 15/14
« Last Edit: Jan 21, 2019, 12:26 AM by Artist formerly known as Crows Nest »
1️⃣👥💕🆕💥🏝 - RIP Brian Bolda

Offline JBlon

Re: No Luck 🙁
« Reply #27 on: Jan 14, 2019, 07:54 PM »
The number of scouts and raids on my base remained fairly consistent last week compared to the previous 2 week cycle. The 2 differences I notice are that the percentage of raids that gave dimes/intel dropped 10-15% and defends dropped from 7-8 to 3 for the week. Yet my vp is still rising. One thing I haven't tracked is the number of PVP that spawn each day so I'm not sure if I'm getting more or less of those or how that's trending.


I've also suspected at times that somehow the less I log in the more activity there seems to be. But that could just be the watched kettle effect too. Incidentally, the only time my vp rise stalled was in the 1180s in November and part of December. Prior to that it rose an average of 61 per month for 9 months since maxing. And since the beginning of that crab cycle on 12/23 I'm up another 62 vp in 3 weeks.
« Last Edit: Jan 14, 2019, 08:19 PM by JBlon »