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If you came across a player that you were 99.9% sure was cheating what would you do?

Report them to Supercell
19 (67.9%)
Nothing
7 (25%)
Other
2 (7.1%)

Total Members Voted: 28

Author Topic: Cheating?  (Read 2901 times)

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Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #105 on: Mar 14, 2019, 02:32 AM »
VP with clear map last night 1,187.  VP tonight with clear map 1,197.  10 vp gain in 24 hours.

Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #106 on: Mar 14, 2019, 07:55 AM »
I agree with the capt nasty, good strategy.

 I notice I get significantly less raids with just 2 clearing sessions per day. However I don’t keep any npc spawns on my map, quite a few top players have said just keeping the daily event on your map as long as possible is the optimal situation. Try it and see what works for you though.

Once you are in the 1300s then you see diminishing returns and you should check for spawns more often and the pressure to drop ice increases.
If you do use ice then drop at least 4 and boost them, don’t half heart it, that will take you to 1400+ comfortably.
Have at least one shield gen but never three.

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Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #107 on: Mar 14, 2019, 10:24 AM »
I used this protocol on my other account that I got to 1,365 vp.  It worked at that vp too, though gains were a little slower.  Retired that account mid-January when it ran out of PP.


Leaving the 3 NPCs during boost sessions is crucial to this protocol.  If you eliminate all NPCs and PvPs your spawn chances (with the daily event present) go to PvP: 17%, NPC: 16%.  At that point it is a toss up whether a spawn is a PvP or NPC.  With the 3 NPCs and no PvPs, spawn chances are 16% and 9% respectively and spawns tend to be PvP (though there is no guarantee).
« Last Edit: Mar 14, 2019, 10:34 AM by CaptNasty »

Offline Ddixon0420

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #108 on: Mar 14, 2019, 11:58 AM »
Hi Capt, that is basically the same system I use, tho without ice in the 1300 range I only gain about 5 a week. I'll leave the 3 npc's and event but clear pvp's throughout the day. Spent the 1st half of this week trying to drop vp. But I don't have the mentality to leave pvp's on my map! Lol, so its back to the slow upward grind.
 Btw, I recall you describing your strategy when you were in our tf; tho I won't admit that I picked it up from you! Lmao
« Last Edit: Mar 14, 2019, 12:50 PM by Ddixon0420 »

Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #109 on: Mar 14, 2019, 12:12 PM »
I do wonder about the spawning chances.
I assume that in a table of 100 entries, there are x entries for pvp and x1 entries for npc spawns, with the remaining being no spawn. Then every 19 minutes there is an rng 1-100 rolled.
So leaving the daily event and keeping everything clear will result in 17 entries pvp and 14 entries for npc. Giving an overall chance of a spawn of 31%
Keeping 3 npcs will result in 16 pvp and 9 npc entries, giving an overall spawn chance of 25%.
I am sure someone smarter than me can determine if this is good or bad 🙂
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Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #110 on: Mar 14, 2019, 01:53 PM »
I do wonder about the spawning chances.
I assume that in a table of 100 entries, there are x entries for pvp and x1 entries for npc spawns, with the remaining being no spawn. Then every 19 minutes there is an rng 1-100 rolled.
So leaving the daily event and keeping everything clear will result in 17 entries pvp and 14 entries for npc. Giving an overall chance of a spawn of 31%
Keeping 3 npcs will result in 16 pvp and 9 npc entries, giving an overall spawn chance of 25%.
I am sure someone smarter than me can determine if this is good or bad 🙂
This is not about maximizing your overall spawn chance.  It is about improving your PvP spawn chance.

I am getting these spawn % straight from the game.  This info is exposed in the radar building.  With a fully clear map and the daily event, your spawn % are 17% and 14% respectively.  So only a 3% differential.  Keeping 3 NPCs gets you to 16% and 9% respectively a 7% differential, so having three NPCs is better for improving your chance of a PvP spawn.

I don’t know that the overall spawn chance == PvP spawn chance + NPC spawn chance either.  With three NPCs during my raiding session this morning I got 3 PvP spawns and 2 NPC spawns during my three hour boost window.  So 180 minutes in my boost gives me 9 spawn chances.  I got spawns on 5 of those 9 spawn chances... that is a 56% spawn rate and is more than double the 25% you cited.  And I have been getting these type of results with relative consistency for about 4 months.  There is more going on here than meets the eye.  This is not straight probability.

Supercell has already indicated that every time we do not get a spawn during the spawn check the overall spawn chance is increased, but the PvP and NPC spawn chances stay the same.  We got that back info in 2016 straight from the CM Tim.  This seems to indicate that overall spawn chance is a different data element than PvP and NPC spawn chance.  I also suspect that under the covers successful raids increase both overall and PvP spawn chances.
« Last Edit: Mar 14, 2019, 02:09 PM by CaptNasty »

Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #111 on: Mar 14, 2019, 02:21 PM »
Hi Capt, that is basically the same system I use, tho without ice in the 1300 range I only gain about 5 a week. I'll leave the 3 npc's and event but clear pvp's throughout the day. Spent the 1st half of this week trying to drop vp. But I don't have the mentality to leave pvp's on my map! Lol, so its back to the slow upward grind.
 Btw, I recall you describing your strategy when you were in our tf; tho I won't admit that I picked it up from you! Lmao
Hey Thumbs!

This system will not in my experience work if you are clearing throughout the day.  I tried it.  It falls apart as you approach 1300 vp.  There seems to be something that happens to spawns when you are offline.  This protocol specifically applies to doing only two raiding sessions a day and staying off the game as much as possible.  When you are on and off frequently throughout the day it seems to lower spawn chances.  I believe that there is much more going on in the spawn calcs than simple probability.

Offline Ddixon0420

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #112 on: Mar 14, 2019, 02:42 PM »
I'm sure you are correct about my spawn rate being affected by my clearing pvp's throughout the day Capt. I've tried your system with a twist. Think I'll follow your lead and try just the two clearing sessions.

Offline Chaucer

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #113 on: Mar 14, 2019, 03:28 PM »
Hey Thumbs!

This system will not in my experience work if you are clearing throughout the day.  I tried it.  It falls apart as you approach 1300 vp.  There seems to be something that happens to spawns when you are offline.  This protocol specifically applies to doing only two raiding sessions a day and staying off the game as much as possible.  When you are on and off frequently throughout the day it seems to lower spawn chances.  I believe that there is much more going on in the spawn calcs than simple probability.

Earlier in this thread you stated you check for spawns every 18 minutes and clear them. How is that not clearing throughout the day?

I would also point out, that you could check every 35 minutes instead with no effect on the spawn chance.


To your larger point, as you said, its not about improving your overall spawn chance, just your PvP chance.

However, it seems your method seeks to only maximize PVP spawn versus NPCs, rather than PVP as an absolute quantity. 17% is greater than 16%.

Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #114 on: Mar 14, 2019, 04:09 PM »
Earlier in this thread you stated you check for spawns every 18 minutes and clear them. How is that not clearing throughout the day?

I would also point out, that you could check every 35 minutes instead with no effect on the spawn chance.

To your larger point, as you said, its not about improving your overall spawn chance, just your PvP chance.

However, it seems your method seeks to only maximize PVP spawn versus NPCs, rather than PVP as an absolute quantity. 17% is greater than 16%.
Where to start with this?  First you do not understand what I wrote.

I said check every 18 minutes during a 3 hour boost window.  Since you are only doing 2 boost sessions in a 24 hour period, you are only checking in during a 6 hour window throughout the day.  That means that for the other 18 hours in the day you are staying off the game as much as possible.

Checking every 18 minutes during your boost session is done so that every spawn check has the highest chance of a PvP spawn.  Checking every 34 minutes would mean that 1 out of every 2 checks will have a lower chance of PvP invasion.

Yes it maximizes PvP spawns versus NPCs, exactly what I have said all along that it does.  That is precisely what you want.  With a 17% chance of PvP spawn, you have a 14% chance of NPC spawn.  A 3% differential.  With 3 NPCs you have a 16% chance of PvP spawn but only a 9% chance of NPC spawn.  A 7% differential.  So you have a 1% lower chance of PvP spawn but you have a 5% lower chance of NPC spawn.  So it is precisely that differential that I am targeting.  The reduction in overall spawn chance is more than offset by the increased likelihood that when a spawn does occur that it will be a PvP.  In other words, I want to optimize the quality of the spawn not the quantity of spawns.  If I have fewer overall spawns, but more of the spawns that I do get are PvP that is a positive thing!


Remember, I am doing this based on my interpretation that the overall spawn chance is a completely separate attribute from the PvP and NPC spawn chances.  This interpretation is partly based on information Supercell has publicly disclosed in the past.  It is also based on my observations from over 3 years of playing.  I feel comfortable with the interpretation because the model that I have built around this seems to hold water.  I can do things now in the game and get predictable results.  If the overall spawn chance is in fact separate as I surmise, then optimizing the differential between PvP spawn chance and NPC spawn chance is the precisely what must be done to impact what type of base you are spawning.  My experiment has consistently bore out this interpretation for the past 4 months.

If this protocol can increase your PvP spawns by just 2-3 per day, that will translate to and additional 10-15 vp per week.  For these guys in higher VP who are struggling to advance, this can play a considerable role in whether a player stalls out or is able to progress.

As I also said earlier, raids are the other part of that equation. VP Gain == PvP spawns - Successful Raids.  This protocol is to manage the lVal of that equation.  We know the potential protocols for managing the rVal (Raids) side of the equation:
  • Join a team that will shield you as you push
  • -or- Have a really solid base design.  No base is impervious, but make it as hard as possible on the attacker
  • - and/or - Drop some ice and boost it
  • - and/or - Try to make your Base look intimidating
  • - and/or - Imitate what top players do (who really likes attacking those tough bases with ice + an SB on top of the HQ + a double shield?  Doable? Yes, but if you mess up you are in trouble).
For those who do not want to drop ice, then they have to do something else to balance the raids side of the equation of they will stall or regress.  Without ice, your base has to be on point.
« Last Edit: Mar 14, 2019, 04:26 PM by CaptNasty »

Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #115 on: Mar 14, 2019, 04:25 PM »
Your system makes sense capt 👍
But
Not if it is the way I described as a higher pvp entries will win out as Chaucer has said as pvp and npc is not linked.
But
If you do get an increased chance of spawning if you previously had no spawns then your way will work.
Can you find where Tim said that please?
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Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #116 on: Mar 14, 2019, 04:27 PM »
It was on the old forum, so it should be here.  I have never had good luck with the search utility on this forum.  His username was Tim. 


He said something to the effect of “Every time that a spawn check occurs and you do not get a spawn, your chance of a getting a spawn on the next check increases.  Once you get a spawn your chance is reset to the default”.


If I recall correctly this started a discussion of whether this information should be visible.  This lead to a response something along the lines of “This change is not reflected in the radar building’s information page because the increase does not change the PvP or NPC spawn chance”.  This discussion may have occurred in a separate series of threads.


I really paid attention to this because it was such an unusual amount of information about how the game worked compared to Supercells usual coyness.  I felt like this was an important piece of information.  I just recently started to think about what it might tell us.
« Last Edit: Mar 14, 2019, 04:46 PM by CaptNasty »

Offline Ddixon0420

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #117 on: Mar 14, 2019, 04:27 PM »
Yes Chaucer, I did say I clear throughout the day. Like I said I use Capt's method with a twist.I totally clear everything but the 7th stage of event every morning while boosted for op. I'll let 3 npc's spawn and remain all day. Everything else that spawns I'll clear. Most I don't need boost for. If I have 5 pvp's built up before nights end that I can't take unboosted, I'll boost 3 Mp's (Td, Th & Gbe) and clear them. Sometimes I might forget stage 7 altogether but not always.
 I've also claimed that I'm not pushing yet; since I haven't deployed ice. But since I'm trying to encourage pvp spawns then the shoe fits! Lol, I guess I am...
  I am going to try and refrain from clearing all day and just do two sessions . If I pick up more I'll let y'all know.
« Last Edit: Mar 14, 2019, 04:30 PM by Ddixon0420 »

Offline Artist formerly known as Crows Nest

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #118 on: Mar 14, 2019, 04:52 PM »
I haven’t found the reference yet but will keep looking. However I note Tim is from 2014/2015 and while he seems a helpful guy (well before my time) there has been many changes to the game since then and things he has said is out of date and not the case now. For example spawn times used to be every 37 minutes.
Not saying this increased chance of a spawn doesn’t happen now but if we are relying on 4 year old information then your and anyone else’s pvp data is all the more important. I don’t see it as I have gone many hours without a spawn and other times get a glut one after the other.

RNG the best way to hide game mechanics 🙂
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Offline CaptNasty

Re: Cheating?
« Reply #119 on: Mar 14, 2019, 04:57 PM »
A lot has changed.  But when you can take a piece of information, build a hypothesis around it, then test the hypothesis and get expected results; you are validating the information.

We can debate about different interpretations of how we all think the game works, but that is a meaningless philosophical exercise.  Help me either validate or invalidate this hypothesis...